Techniques to Anticipate Technology & Markets Part 1
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For any business to be successful in today’s industry, it must be at par with technology and market needs. New technologies are being made everyday resulting in shifts the market needs. There are several techniques that business management can use to keep track of the changes, and adapt to them so as to build resilience.
Also known as Applied Imagination, brainstorming refers to solving problems by use of creative solutions. The brainstormers focus on the problem at hand and raise as many solutions as possible. By having all the solutions on the table, each is analyzed to find out which one is most applicable.
Brainstorming requires minimum inhibitions among the team members so as to encourage idea generation and creativity. The following are ways that can be used to achieve this.
- Criticism must be avoided during the initial stages of brainstorming. This should be done to encourage the team members to generate varied ideas. If criticism is used in this stage, the team members are likely to reserve many ideas leading to generation of few ideas.
- Unusual ideas must be put down as it is easier to reduce the number of ideas than it is to increase.
- Higher numbers of ideas create a pool from which the best solution can be chosen.
- Combining the best ideas collected results into the ideal solution.
The Delphi method is in the format of a questionnaire that is directed to a number of people, mostly experts. The questions used are on a given subject matter in which the experts are supposed to give their feedback as regards its future development. All the feedback obtained is analyzed, put together and send back to the respondents for any amendments and justification of their opinions. The feedback collected is send back to the respondents until there is nothing more to amend. For ease in the analysis of answers given, the questions used in Delphi Method are usually quantitative.
The main advantage of this method is that the answers give a range that can be used as a measure of reliability. However, it has one main limitation in that the group of experts chosen may all be wrong in their feedbacks, leading businesses to the wrong paths in terms of technological advancements.
- 3. Trend extrapolation
Extrapolation is the process of looking at the future by use of past trends. Trend extrapolation is therefore a forecasting technique that uses statistical methods to project the future pattern of a time series data. Such methods include exponential smoothing and moving averages. In technology, the method can detect if there has been a steady stream of technological change and improvement.
In this technique, scenarios that represent various future developments are developed. These are usually based on the past and present perspectives and are therefore good guides to the future. The framework makes it possible to define, compare and distinguish large numbers of characteristics present in the scenarios.
- 5. Road mapping
In technology, a roadmap refers to a plan that links short-term and long-term goals with specific technology solutions. The solutions must be carefully matched to these goals to make them attainable. Road mapping is used to reach an agreement about a set of needs and appropriate technologies, it creates a platform on which technological developments can be forecasted and provides a framework to map and synchronize developments.
Benefits of road mapping
- The strategies are represented in a visual structure that is easy to analyze
- Is a good way of incorporating new technology into businesses
How important is anticipating technology markets for companies and manufacturers?
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